93648 Effective Preaching and Teaching Week 8

Review 

Topical Message – Take your idea, good thought, scriptural truth and then find scriptural references to support the theme and points.

Structure of Message

  1. Introduction
  1. Point
  1. Explanation
  2. Illustration
  3. Application
  1. Repeat Several Times
  1. Conclusion (Summary/Review and Call to Action)

The structure above fits any sermon unless you break from a solid traditional sermon style and go for something that is completely unique or different. Breaking from this mold is dangerous as your opportunity for not effectively communicating increases drastically.

Textual Message – a sermon that refers often to a particular Biblical text for a subject and the main divisions. The main points are clearly inferred by the passage; however the subdivisions are invented as in the same construction of a topical sermon.

Two keys of Textual and Expository Messages

  • Analysis, or ‘taking apart,’ involves an explanation of the parts of a particular text, along with their relationships to one another.
  • Synthesis, or ‘putting together,’ involves a rearrangement of points or the construction of an outline from points supplied by the text. (rearranging framework, majoring on a minor theme or superimposing design to create vividness)

Questions to ask in analysis:

  • Who is the speaker?
  • Why is this said?
  • Who is addressed?
  • What is required / What are the conditions of success?
  • What lessons are taught?
  • What promises are made?
  • What ideas are expressed?
  • What doctrines are taught?
  • What qualities are displayed?

The questions in Analysis serve all forms of sermons, as it is a good idea to review these ideas when developing your message. Often you get an idea for a topical sermon from one key scripture verse or short passage.

Romans 13:11-14. 

Romans 8:12-17. 

John’s “I AM” Statements: 

  • John 6:35 – Bread of Life. 
  • John 8:12 – Light of the World. 
  • John 10:9 – Door. 
  • John 10:11 – Good Shepherd. 
  • John 11:25 – Resurrection and Life. 
  • John 14:6 – Way, Truth, Life. 
  • John 15:1 – True Vine. 
  • John 8:58 – I AM that I AM.

93643 Effective Preaching and Teaching Week 3

More on Message Construction 

  1. Introduction
  1. Should be striking.
    • Initial impressions are lasting and sticky. If you do not arouse the emotions and interest of the audience in the first few minutes, you may not recover. Start a fire! Throw some sticky buns!
  2. Should be clear.
    • Thoughts must be in order and specific so the audience can engage their minds in the sermon without distraction. You do not want the audience wondering or wandering for 10 minutes not knowing where this message is going. “Tell them, what you are going to tell them.”
  3. Should have unity.
    • Only one idea should be presented. Multiple ideas will confuse your audience. Do not try to ‘wow’ them with various theological thoughts in your introduction.
  4. Should be brief.
    • Nobody likes a long drawn out introduction. The audience is annoyed when half the time of delivery is spent on introducing the theme.
  5. Should be modest.
    • Even in starting a fire your introduction should contain a conversational tone even when you are passionate. If your introduction is that amazing, you will likely underwhelm the audience with the remainder of the sermon.
  6. Should be unapologetic.
    • Do not apologize in your introduction. If the item that you wish to discuss demands apology it probably should be avoided. IE Don’t apologize for being tired or sick. This will bring unneeded attention and will distract from the message itself.
      Remember that controversial is not the same as confrontational.
  7. Various materials may be used in the preparation of introduction.
    • Sermons are written because of a reason. Sometimes that reason can be stated and other times it cannot. Use materials (listed under materials/argument) in the process of writing the introduction
  1. Points (the meat of the message) 

  1. Exposition: Explain the original intended meaning of the point in the text
  2. Illustration: Use a specific situation to “picture” the point being made

  1. One word (bread, salt, light) 
  2. Analogy (like farmer sowing seeds and waiting for harvest) 
  3. Anecdote (personal true story) 
  4. The story (fictional story)
  1. Application (persuasion): Apply the Scripture truth to contemporary situations

  1. Sermon should instruct and inspire but above all else, persuade
  2. Ideal sermon will have the necessary pieces to:
  1. instruct the mind 
  2. impress the will
  3. hold the attention
  4. stir the emotions and move to action
  1. Conclusion
  1. Like the introduction, it should be clear, have unity and also be brief. This is the call to action or the climax of persuasion. Your audience cannot handle a variety of items or calls to action within one conclusion. Like your introduction it should have one theme, and one call to action which should be representative of your entire message.
  2. The conclusion should be intense. This does not mean volume, but moral and spiritual intensity. It should be wrapped with Godly zeal and passion. A preacher that cannot be intense in his appeal for decisions that have eternal consequences is in dire trouble.
  3. Types of Conclusions
  1. The lesson – Often common for teaching sermons that require no immediate decision, this kind of conclusion sums up the ‘moral of the story’.
  2. The summary – Briefly repeating the points to aid in retention; also typical of a teaching sermon that does not require an immediate decision.
  3. The appeal – Urges immediate decision, action or obedience. Even if a decision can be made in one’s seat, it’s always necessary for a public profession of faith. An appeal is most effective when it’s not been expected. If someone is pre-prepared for the conclusion and your appeal, their thoughts are likely to wander elsewhere.

Textual – a sermon that refers often to a particular Biblical text for a subject and the main divisions. The main points are clearly inferred by the passage; however, the subdivisions are invented as in the same construction of a topical sermon. Two methods for making textual divisions.

  • Analysis, or ‘taking apart,’ involves an explanation of the parts of a particular text, along with their relationships to one another.
  • Synthesis, or ‘putting together,’ involves a rearrangement of points or the construction of an outline from points supplied by the text. (rearranging framework, majoring on a minor theme or superimposing design to create vividness)

For week 4:

  • Volunteer(s) for 10-15(max) presentation of Topical Message
  • Please select another theme as we begin to look at the Textual Message

93645 Effective Preaching and Teaching Week 5

Textual – a sermon that refers often to a particular Biblical text for a subject and the main divisions. The main points are clearly inferred by the passage; however the subdivisions are invented as in the same construction of a topical sermon. Two methods for making textual divisions.

  • Analysis, or ‘taking apart,’ involves an explanation of the parts of a particular text, along with their relationships to one another.
  • Synthesis, or ‘putting together,’ involves a rearrangement of points or the construction of an outline from points supplied by the text. (rearranging framework, majoring on a minor theme or superimposing design to create vividness)

A Textual Sermon and an Expository Sermon are very similar, and are constructed in the same manner. The main difference is the subdivisions and meat of the sermon. A Textual sermon often uses the text as a skeletal structure whereas the Expository sermon uses the entire passage. This often means the passage in the Expository sermon is much longer than that of the Textual.

We will focus on the analysis of the text as a way to dig and discover and then the synthesis to arrange and construct.

Questions to ask in analysis:

  • Who is the speaker?
  • Why is this said?
  • Who is addressed?
  • What is required?
  • What are the conditions of success?
  • What lessons are taught?
  • What promises are made?
  • What ideas are expressed?
  • What doctrines are taught?
  • What qualities are displayed?

Examples to build in class:

Philippians 1:5-6

for your fellowship in the gospel from the first day until now, being confident of this very thing, that He who has begun a good work in you will complete it until the day of Jesus Christ;

  • Day of Conversion
  • Day of Opportunity
  • Day of His Return

Colossians 3:12-14

Therefore, as the elect of God, holy and beloved, put on tender mercies, kindness, humility, meekness, longsuffering; bearing with one another, and forgiving one another, if anyone has a complaint against another; even as Christ forgave you, so you also must do. But above all these things put on love, which is the bond of perfection.

The Christians Attire

  • Turban of Humility
  • Tunic of Compassion and Kindness
  • Sandals of Longsuffering
  • Cloak of Forgiveness
  • Sash of Love

Matthew 7:13-14

“Enter by the narrow gate; for wide is the gate and broad is the way that leads to destruction, and there are many who go in by it. Because narrow is the gate and difficult is the way which leads to life, and there are few who find it.”

Once you have completed the analysis and extracted various ideas, concepts, ‘raw data’ then it is necessary to move onto the next step of synthesis. Synthesis is important as it is the process of compiling or arranging these concepts and information into a structured format with some unity.

Example: Classifying a rubber tree as roots, trunk and branches would be analysis. Making these things into a tire would be synthesis.
Identifying bricks, wood, nails, sheetrock etc. would be analysis – putting them together into a house would be synthesis.

Synthesis is necessary when there is no clear order, theme or structure built into the chosen text.

93642 Effective Preaching and Teaching Week 2

Constructing the Topical Sermon 

Topical – a sermon that has a topic in mind prior to consulting the text, and then search for one or more biblical texts that address the topic chosen beforeand. 

  1. May be composed by displaying its aspects or point of view (way of looking at a subject)
    1. Prayer – necessity, method, results
  2. May be constructed by stating its proofs (best for controversial themes)
    1. Messiah – OT Prophecy, Christ’s Work, Christ’s Claims, Power of the Gospel
  3. May be developed by advancing illustrations of the theme taken from Bible incidents and biographies, or even by illustrations from church history.
    1. Influence of Godly Mother – Moses, Samuel, Timothy
  4. May be developed according to the kinds of materials used in a sermon: explanations, argument, illustration and application.
    1. Tithing – Explain it, Prove it, Illustrate it, Apply it
  5. May be developed by treating the subject part by part or step by step, when such a sermon can be given spiritual significance.
    1. Courtroom of Life – Judge, Accuser, Advocate, Verdict

Organizing Your Sermon 

  1. Why Organize your sermon 
  1. Facilitates delivery. 
  2. More pleasing to the hearer. 
  3. Easier to remember
  4. Easier to understand. 
  5. Increases effectiveness. 
  1. Qualities of an organized sermon: 
  1. Unity (one theme prevails through all divisions). 
  2. Coherence (parts related to common theme and adhere to one another). 
  3. Steady progressSymmetry. 
  4. Should have climax. 

*To have an organized sermon, you must also have organized study.*

Steps / Checklist for Preparation (one process for construction of sermon) 

Once the exegetical study is made of a selected passage and the audience need is understood, the following steps are suggested.

Step #1 State a theme for preaching

The theme should be in harmony with the Scripture passage and a specific contemporary human need. Sermon title comes from the theme.

Step #2 State the truth you want to establish

There should be a statement in sentence form, which pulls together the exegetical idea and the human need, expressing precisely what principle you want to have established by the end of the sermon.

Step #3 State an audience-centered purpose

There should be a statement in attitude/behavior terms, which expresses precisely what purpose you have in establishing the above truth. It should be agreeable with the original purpose of the passage. It should be in terms of “How to” or “Ought to”

Step #4 Select points you want to use (minimum of two)

These should be an outgrowth of your exegetical study. All points should come from the passage(s) being used. They do not have to be in the same order as in the text

Step #5 State the response you hope the sermon will produce

It should be in line with the passage. It should be expressed in objective terms.

Step #6 Decide where to place the exegesis

Introduction, body and/or conclusion – To draw out the hidden meaning of Scripture. To interpret. The art of expounding Scripture. Explanation or critical interpretation. Letting the Scripture speak for itself. In exegesis, it is always invalid to read a meaning into Scripture, which was never intended by the original author. The exposition sets forth the true meaning in an appropriate and effective order.

Step #7 Write introduction

Start with perspective of the Scripture and move to need, or start with the need and move to the perspective of the Scripture

Step #8 Fill in outline

For each point, use the following pattern:
Exposition: Explain the original intended meaning of the point in the text
Application: Apply the Scripture truth to contemporary situations
Illustration: Use a specific situation to “picture” the point being made

Step #9 Write Conclusion

Conclude with an overall summary or on the basis of the final point

Step #10 Express the Appeal

The appeal should be specific; it should be simple and measurable. You should express precisely what you want the audience to do.

Deductive and Inductive Study 

The deductive method of reasoning moves toward necessary conclusions derived from correct connections between premises which are all either given or assumed to be true.

The inductive method of reasoning moves toward possible conclusions derived from hypothetical connections between premises (observations) which are selected from among all possible true premises (observations).

Ideally, the deductive method of reasoning is objective in its conclusions (the conclusions are necessarily true), but subjective in its premises (the premises are assumed to be true).

Ideally, the inductive method of reasoning is subjective in its conclusions (the conclusions are not necessarily true), but objective in its premises (the premises are observed to be true).

The deductive method reasons from certain premises to a necessary conclusion. It is often described as reasoning from the general to the specific.

Premise: All men are mortal
Premise: Socrates is a man
Conclusion: Socrates is mortal

If the premises are true, and the form is correct or valid, then the conclusion is necessarily true. However, if the form is invalid, then the conclusion is not necessarily true.

Some men are mortal.
Socrates is a man.
Therefore, Socrates is mortal.

Though we may know that Socrates is mortal, nevertheless that does not logically flow from the premises of this argument. If we only know that some men are mortal, then Socrates might be among some men who are not mortal. The form of the argument is not valid.

The inductive method reasons in the opposite direction of the deductive method. It begins with specific observations and reasons to a generalization about the observations. It is often described as reasoning from the particulars to the general.

I have examined ten thousand dogs.
Every dog I have examined has fleas.
Therefore, all dogs have fleas.

The conclusion (really, a generalization) may possibly be true there is no observation which contradicts the conclusion but it is not necessarily true there are still more observations which could be made.

If, indeed, I had examined all dogs (which, of course, nobody could possibly do), and all dogs examined had fleas, then I could conclude that all dogs do indeed have fleas. Based on my sample of dogs, it appears that all dogs have fleas. But the first dog I found which did not have fleas would contradict and therefore disprove my conclusion. So all that I actually know is that some dogs have fleas.

Inductive Bible Study

Inductive Bible study on the basic level is simply careful instruction in the meaning of the Biblical text. A better name for this might be analytic Bible study [Greek: analuein to undo, to loosen back (to the elements)] because it breaks down Bible texts into parts or principles in order to examine its meaning and relationship to other texts.

One common way of doing an inductive study is to choose a large passage to examine word by word, phrase by phrase, paragraph by paragraph with a series of such questions as Who? What? Where? When? Why? How? What kind of? How many? Which help to draw out some of the meaning of the text

  1. We begin with the observation level, determining what the text says
  2. We next move to the interpretation level, determining what the text means by what it says.
  3. Finally we move to the application level, determining how to apply what the text means to issues of modern life.

Deductive Bible Study

Deductive Bible study on the basic level is simply instruction in Biblical doctrine. A better name for this might be synthetic Bible study [Greek: suntithemai to put together] because it puts together the separate elements of the Bible to form a coherent whole which is more highly developed than the parts. In a deductive study we might examine a previously selected series of Biblical texts in order to gather up Biblical propositions which, when properly arranged, prove such doctrines as the deity of Christ, or the personality of the Holy Spirit, or salvation by the blood atonement of Christ. The Apostles reasoned with them from the Scriptures, explaining and demonstrating that the Christ had to suffer and rise again from the dead.(Acts 17:2-°©‐3) So a deductive study is topical in nature, and someone must first do the work of finding the texts and arranging them to prove the doctrine, then we examine his work, benefit from it, and perhaps even improve upon it. The deductive study saves us much of the work of assembling these texts and building these doctrines on our own. In this way those young in the faith can be quickly edified [built up] line upon line in basic, essential, and important doctrines of the faith.

One common way of doing a deductive study is for the student to examine a selected series of Bible texts, then to answer specific questions about each text questions which will draw out and pull together the logical inferences so that the student can think for himself step-by-step through the logic of the doctrine.

Of course, in deductive Bible study the student must place a reasonable amount of trust in his teacher to guide him through the doctrines. Nevertheless, there are some things hard to understand, which untaught and unstable persons twist to their own destruction, as they do also the rest of the Scriptures. (2 Peter 3:16) The danger of the deductive study is that, regardless of the teachers intentions, we may be mislead. So the student must also examine for himself the Bible texts in their contexts to see if they say what the teacher thinks they say, and He must test the logical connections to make sure they prove what the teacher thinks they prove. The Bereans were more fair-minded than those in Thessalonica, in that they received the word [of the Apostles doctrine] with all readiness, and searched the Scriptures daily to find out whether these things were so. Therefore many of them believed. (Acts 17:11-12) Both the teacher and the student are accountable to the Lord, as well as to each other in the Lord.

DEDUCTIVE REASONING

Deductive reasoning begins with a hypothesis, which basically means a “good guess.” After this guess is made, a person would gather evidence to prove the point. If the hypothesis is correct, the evidence will support it. If the hypothesis is wrong, the evidence will not support it. We all use this line of reasoning every day to draw conclusions about our world. Deductive reasoning is basically a “trial & error” method.

INDUCTIVE REASONING 

Inductive reasoning demands that one studies, observes, gathers evidence (the specific part) and then draws conclusions (the general part) based on all the above. This is a much stronger way to establish truth than any other method of Bible study. Deductive reasoning is used at every stage of observation but the main idea is stated only after all observations are made. In this way, each observation leads to a new discovery of truth.

Topical Sermon (error)

Sometimes God doesn’t care

  1. God turned His back on Jesus
  1. How much more will He despise humanity if He turned his back on His son
  2. Matthew 27:46 2.
  1. God punishes us at will
  1. God is full of anger and wrath and will chastise you
  2. Leviticus 26:28
  1. Your guilt will be so heavy you might as well hang yourself
  1. Even an apostle cannot escape the guilt of humanity
  2. Matthew 27:5

93641 Effective Preaching and Teaching Week 1

Scripture Reference: Nehemiah 8:7-8 

(7) Also Jeshua, Bani, Sherebiah, Jamin, Akkub, Shabbethai, Hodijah, Maaseiah, Kelita, Azariah, Jozabad, Hanan, Pelaiah, and the Levites caused the people to understand the law, and the people [stood] in their place. 

(8) So they read distinctly from the book, in the Law of God; and they gave the sense, and helped them to understand the reading. 

(Amplified Bible): “…helped the people to understand the law; and the people remained in their place, So they read from the book of the Law of God distinctly, faithfully amplifying and giving the sense, so that the people understood the reading.”

Definitions and Terms

  1. Biblical: Ideas and concepts presented in the sermon are in harmony with the original intent and purpose of the original author of the Scripture and being used in the sermon. 
  1. A sermon is Biblical only if the Scripture being used is founded upon the meaning of the original author 
  2. A sermon fails to be Biblical if the Scripture being used departs from the original meaning of the first author of the Scriptures.
  1. Preaching: A proclamation of Divine Truth with the express purpose of causing a change in a person’s behavior. Always delivered with persuasion. 

  1. The art of moving men from a lower to a higher life
  2. The art of inspiring men toward a nobler manhood
  3. The art of inspiring men so as to incite them to action
  4. Speech that moves men to action
  5. Reveals God to man
  6. The communication of truth by man to men
  7. Webster’s Dictionary
    • To proclaim publicly
    • To deliver a sermon
    • To urge acceptance or abandonment of an idea or course of action
  8. The communication of God’s truth by God’s servant to meet the needs of the people (Wierbe)
  9. The bringing of truth through personality (Philip Brooks)
  1. Teaching: 
  1. To cause to know a subject. 
  2. To cause to know how. 
  3. To guide the studies of. 
  4. To instruct by precept, example, or experience. 
  5. To provide instruction.
  1. Audience Needs: This means that people can and do have on a regular basis, observable problems in life situations, which can be addressed in public sermons.
  1. All sermons must be the express purpose of addressing human needs or else there would be no reason to preach.
  1. Cross-Cultural Truths: Scripture contains truths, which are not bound by one culture.
  2. Exegesis: To draw out the hidden meaning of Scripture. To interpret. The art of expounding Scripture. Explanation or critical interpretation. Letting the Scripture speak for itself. In exegesis, it is always invalid to read a meaning into Scripture, which was never intended by the original author. The exposition sets forth the true meaning in an appropriate and effective order. 
  3. Hermeneutics: The science of interpretation. The study of the methods and principles of interpreting the Bible.
  1. Various Methods of Hermeneutics:
  1. The Literal Method: Interpretation gives to each word the same exact meaning if would have in normal, ordinary, customary usage, whether employed in writing, speaking or thinking. The customary, socially acknowledged designation of a word is the literal meaning of that word. The meaning is to be determined by both grammatical and historical determination. 
  2. The Allegorical Method: The literal sense is only a vehicle for a more spiritual and profound sense.. This historical meaning is either denied or ignored and the emphasis is placed entirely on a secondary sense so that the original words or events have little or no significance. This method results from the desire to unite Greek Philosophy and the Word of God. (Greek Philosophy was considered to be of divine Origin) 
  3. The Anti-Supernatural Method: To explain all miracles-events in terms of some natural occurrences. 
  4. The Dogmatic Method: Starts with a Dogma or Doctrine and makes all Scripture fit into a certain mold. The method is determined by man’s statement of truth as set forth in a Creed or a Denomination or Church’s Statement of Doctrine. 
  5. The Devotional Method: Meaning out of Scripture by some inner thought or impression of your own. 
  6. Personal Philosophy Method: Starts with one’s own view of life and finds Scripture which “support” that viewpoint. 
  7. The Commentary Method: This pulls together different ideas from selected Commentaries forming a composite interpretation.
  1. Homiletics: The study and delivery of sermons. The science that teaches the principles of adapting the discourses of the pulpit to the spiritual needs and benefits of the hearers.
  2. Homily: A lecture or moral conduct. A religious discourse delivered to a congregation – conversation – discourse. A serious admonition or exhortation upon a course of conduct.
  3. Text: A verse or passage of Scripture chosen especially for the subject of a sermon or for authoritative support (as for a doctrine).
  4. Theme: Argument, Main Point, Subject, Topic. The principle phrase idea or term of logical proposition on which a sermon or speech is based.
  5. Title: Premise, Thesis, Name, Term Theme. A descriptive or general heading, the name of a written, printed, or filmed production, a label.
  6. Proposition: The sermon’s intent or “big idea,” expressed in a clear, biblical, and relevant sentence. 
  1. This sentence is to the sermon what the spine is to the skeleton, and the foundation to the house. It holds things together and helps to determine what the final product will become.
  2. The proposition should be Biblical (Timeless Truth worth preaching about) Important and relevant to the needs of the people. It should be definite and clear, accurate and honest and interesting so the listener is encouraged to want to listen to the development of the theme in the sermon.
  3. It should always be stated in the present tense. (What God does for us today?)

Kinds of Preparation 

  1. Impromptu – A speech that is made or done on the spur of the moment. Something that is done with sudden notice. Very little time given to prepare.
  2. Extemporaneous  – Carefully prepared but delivered without notes or text. It could happen very suddenly and often unexpectedly. A speech that results from sudden thoughts flowing through the mind of the speaker.
  3. Formal – Rigid, methodical relating to the outward from of something. Following an established form, rule or custom

Types of Sermons 

  1. Topical – a sermon that has a topic in mind prior to consulting the text, and then search for one or more biblical texts that address the topic chosen beforeand. 
  2. Textual – a sermon that refers often to a particular Biblical text, but does not take the main point of the text as its own.. 
  3. Expositional – a sermon which takes the point of the text as the point of the sermon. 
  4. Biographical – a sermon in which the preacher traces the life of a biblical character and draws contemporary moral implications.. 
  5. Anecdotal – a sermon in which the preacher primarily tells engaging stories with a moral lesson. 
  6. Illustrative – using a prop to help communicate and bridge the gap from Scripture to today’s life.

Selecting a Theme 

  1. Select a Theme (due on 2nd week)

  1. Theme should express the whole aim of the sermon
  2. Theme should be biblical
  3. Theme should be dynamic. It should start hearers in a certain direction and stir mental activity
  4. Theme should be specific and not general or broad

    Choosing and Interpreting a Text 

    1. Select a real text. One that is a complete statement, precept or narrative used with the sense intended by the author.
    2. Select the great doctrinal and ethical texts of the Bible.
    3. Avoid texts known to be interpolations (things that have crept into later manuscripts)
    4. Avoid the sayings of uninspired men when choosing texts (Jobs friends)
    5. Do not choose texts simply because they are odd or unusual.
    6. Interpret the text in the light of the context.
    7. Interpret the text in harmony with the teaching of the whole Bible.
    8. The text must be interpreted in harmony with sound, systematic doctrine.
    9. A text should be taken literally unless it’s obviously figurative or unless a literal interpretation would lead to an absurdity or impossibility.
    10. If possible, consult the original languages as a help to interpretation
    11. If you are unable to or do not understand the original text, consult several different translations of the bible (NKJV, Young’s Literal, Interlinear, Amplified, etc.)
    12. Consult parallel passages
    13. Consult a good critical, exegetical commentary

    64312.1 Endnotes

    Is Jesus Coming Back?

    1. Sir Robert Anderson, The Coming Prince (Grand Rapids, MI: Kregel Publications, 1975, 19th edition), 155.
    2. Bertrand Russell, Why I Am Not a Christian (New York: Touchstone, 1957), 16.
    3. C. S. Lewis, “Predictions of the Second Coming,” quoted in: http://www.atkinsmarketingsolutions.com/wp/2011/05/21/rapture-marketing-c-s-lewis-end-of-the-world-predictions/